Model comparison: Aklin, Harish & Urpelainen (2018)

statistics
probability
Author

Jeremiah Iyamabo

Published

December 9, 2025

The setting: What’s this about?

A short note on key variables

  • dependent variable:
    • “elecrate_total”
  • independent variables:
    • “year”
    • “countryname”: fixed effects

Load packages

Show the code 
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

# modelling
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
from linearmodels.panel import PanelOLS

# visualisation
from matplotlib import style
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt

Load data

Show the code 
pd.read_stata("./data/Electrification_Database.dta").head()
countryname countrycode year elecrate_total elecrate_urban elecrate_rural
0 Albania ALB 1970 100.0 NaN NaN
1 Algeria DZA 1966 33.7 74.0 11.8
2 Algeria DZA 1969 40.0 NaN NaN
3 Algeria DZA 1977 45.8 NaN NaN
4 Algeria DZA 1981 59.0 NaN NaN
Show the code 
data = pd.read_stata("./data/Electrification_Database.dta")

Exploratory data analysis

Year range: 1949 - 2015

Show the code 
data.year.describe()
count    1035.000000
mean     1997.500483
std        13.396814
min      1949.000000
25%      1992.000000
50%      2001.000000
75%      2008.000000
max      2015.000000
Name: year, dtype: float64

Model specification

Model 1: Pooled linear regression

Show the code 
model_01 = smf.ols("elecrate_total ~ year + C(countryname)", data = data).fit()
Show the code 
model_01.summary().tables[0]
OLS Regression Results
Dep. Variable: elecrate_total R-squared: 0.917
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.905
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 74.48
Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2026 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 23:19:27 Log-Likelihood: -3564.1
No. Observations: 961 AIC: 7378.
Df Residuals: 836 BIC: 7987.
Df Model: 124
Covariance Type: nonrobust
Show the code 
model_01.summary().tables[1]
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
Intercept -2398.6158 59.113 -40.577 0.000 -2514.643 -2282.589
C(countryname)[T.Algeria] -50.5717 11.001 -4.597 0.000 -72.165 -28.978
C(countryname)[T.Angola] -125.3689 12.265 -10.222 0.000 -149.443 -101.295
C(countryname)[T.Argentina] -41.1700 11.457 -3.593 0.000 -63.658 -18.682
C(countryname)[T.Bahamas, The] -46.0363 11.621 -3.961 0.000 -68.846 -23.227
C(countryname)[T.Bahrain] -22.3246 11.840 -1.886 0.060 -45.564 0.915
C(countryname)[T.Bangladesh] -108.1162 10.943 -9.880 0.000 -129.595 -86.637
C(countryname)[T.Barbados] -38.4789 12.232 -3.146 0.002 -62.489 -14.469
C(countryname)[T.Belize] -57.6622 11.044 -5.221 0.000 -79.340 -35.985
C(countryname)[T.Benin] -121.5828 11.146 -10.908 0.000 -143.460 -99.705
C(countryname)[T.Bhutan] -85.6307 11.640 -7.357 0.000 -108.477 -62.784
C(countryname)[T.Bolivia] -69.7564 11.246 -6.203 0.000 -91.831 -47.682
C(countryname)[T.Bosnia and Herzegovina] -42.1208 12.999 -3.240 0.001 -67.636 -16.606
C(countryname)[T.Botswana] -111.5935 11.084 -10.068 0.000 -133.349 -89.838
C(countryname)[T.Brazil] -46.3521 11.238 -4.125 0.000 -68.410 -24.294
C(countryname)[T.Brunei Darussalam] -48.1004 11.281 -4.264 0.000 -70.242 -25.958
C(countryname)[T.Bulgaria] -8.5137 11.595 -0.734 0.463 -31.273 14.245
C(countryname)[T.Burkina Faso] -131.0435 11.099 -11.807 0.000 -152.829 -109.259
C(countryname)[T.Burundi] -141.1831 11.274 -12.523 0.000 -163.312 -119.054
C(countryname)[T.Cabo Verde] -78.9596 11.201 -7.049 0.000 -100.946 -56.973
C(countryname)[T.Cambodia] -123.0233 11.477 -10.719 0.000 -145.550 -100.496
C(countryname)[T.Cameroon] -103.2672 11.016 -9.375 0.000 -124.889 -81.646
C(countryname)[T.Central African Republic] -135.9839 11.476 -11.849 0.000 -158.509 -113.458
C(countryname)[T.Chad] -136.2500 12.254 -11.118 0.000 -160.303 -112.197
C(countryname)[T.Chile] -43.3558 11.048 -3.924 0.000 -65.041 -21.671
C(countryname)[T.China] -46.0390 11.642 -3.954 0.000 -68.890 -23.188
C(countryname)[T.Colombia] -50.5144 10.961 -4.609 0.000 -72.029 -29.000
C(countryname)[T.Comoros] -101.3030 11.620 -8.718 0.000 -124.111 -78.495
C(countryname)[T.Congo, Dem. Rep.] -133.4269 11.474 -11.629 0.000 -155.948 -110.906
C(countryname)[T.Congo, Rep.] -112.1216 11.887 -9.432 0.000 -135.454 -88.789
C(countryname)[T.Costa Rica] -40.1533 11.445 -3.508 0.000 -62.618 -17.688
C(countryname)[T.Cote d'Ivoire] -85.6127 11.616 -7.370 0.000 -108.413 -62.812
C(countryname)[T.Croatia] -39.8183 12.257 -3.249 0.001 -63.876 -15.761
C(countryname)[T.Cuba] -39.8757 11.329 -3.520 0.000 -62.113 -17.638
C(countryname)[T.Cyprus] -29.7467 12.225 -2.433 0.015 -53.741 -5.752
C(countryname)[T.Djibouti] -89.8983 11.479 -7.832 0.000 -112.429 -67.368
C(countryname)[T.Dominican Republic] -54.3809 10.958 -4.963 0.000 -75.889 -32.873
C(countryname)[T.Ecuador] -51.3200 11.137 -4.608 0.000 -73.179 -29.461
C(countryname)[T.Egypt, Arab Rep.] -43.4742 11.267 -3.859 0.000 -65.588 -21.360
C(countryname)[T.El Salvador] -57.5116 10.938 -5.258 0.000 -78.981 -36.042
C(countryname)[T.Equatorial Guinea] -99.9433 12.247 -8.161 0.000 -123.981 -75.906
C(countryname)[T.Eritrea] -110.2428 12.260 -8.992 0.000 -134.306 -86.179
C(countryname)[T.Ethiopia] -125.6026 11.351 -11.066 0.000 -147.882 -103.323
C(countryname)[T.Fiji] -65.5133 11.863 -5.522 0.000 -88.798 -42.228
C(countryname)[T.Gabon] -64.2100 13.007 -4.936 0.000 -89.741 -38.679
C(countryname)[T.Gambia, The] -107.6383 11.863 -9.073 0.000 -130.923 -84.353
C(countryname)[T.Ghana] -91.3692 10.970 -8.329 0.000 -112.901 -69.837
C(countryname)[T.Guatemala] -69.6833 11.329 -6.151 0.000 -91.920 -47.447
C(countryname)[T.Guinea] -118.4529 11.255 -10.525 0.000 -140.544 -96.362
C(countryname)[T.Guinea-Bissau] -135.9623 11.637 -11.684 0.000 -158.804 -113.121
C(countryname)[T.Guyana] -78.2540 11.611 -6.740 0.000 -101.044 -55.464
C(countryname)[T.Haiti] -95.2811 12.231 -7.790 0.000 -119.288 -71.274
C(countryname)[T.Honduras] -76.2756 11.232 -6.791 0.000 -98.322 -54.229
C(countryname)[T.India] -79.1943 11.335 -6.987 0.000 -101.442 -56.946
C(countryname)[T.Indonesia] -73.7408 10.760 -6.853 0.000 -94.861 -52.620
C(countryname)[T.Iran, Islamic Rep.] -46.7397 11.120 -4.203 0.000 -68.566 -24.913
C(countryname)[T.Jamaica] -58.9037 11.860 -4.967 0.000 -82.182 -35.626
C(countryname)[T.Jordan] -48.8338 11.078 -4.408 0.000 -70.578 -27.090
C(countryname)[T.Kenya] -123.3887 11.264 -10.955 0.000 -145.497 -101.280
C(countryname)[T.Kosovo] -54.5383 15.023 -3.630 0.000 -84.026 -25.051
C(countryname)[T.Kuwait] -29.9117 12.974 -2.306 0.021 -55.376 -4.447
C(countryname)[T.Lao PDR] -100.0533 10.973 -9.118 0.000 -121.591 -78.516
C(countryname)[T.Lebanon] -35.4292 11.862 -2.987 0.003 -58.712 -12.146
C(countryname)[T.Lesotho] -127.9485 11.093 -11.534 0.000 -149.722 -106.175
C(countryname)[T.Liberia] -145.9125 11.895 -12.267 0.000 -169.259 -122.566
C(countryname)[T.Libya] -42.0922 11.464 -3.672 0.000 -64.594 -19.590
C(countryname)[T.Macedonia, FYR] -41.5867 14.999 -2.773 0.006 -71.027 -12.146
C(countryname)[T.Madagascar] -127.0576 11.199 -11.345 0.000 -149.040 -105.075
C(countryname)[T.Malawi] -136.2317 11.358 -11.994 0.000 -158.526 -113.937
C(countryname)[T.Malaysia] -50.0894 12.237 -4.093 0.000 -74.109 -26.070
C(countryname)[T.Maldives] -51.7350 12.266 -4.218 0.000 -75.811 -27.659
C(countryname)[T.Mali] -124.6379 11.269 -11.061 0.000 -146.756 -102.520
C(countryname)[T.Malta] -38.0500 12.994 -2.928 0.004 -63.555 -12.545
C(countryname)[T.Mauritania] -116.6370 11.195 -10.418 0.000 -138.611 -94.663
C(countryname)[T.Mauritius] -36.0600 11.329 -3.183 0.002 -58.298 -13.822
C(countryname)[T.Mexico] -42.9702 11.336 -3.791 0.000 -65.221 -20.720
C(countryname)[T.Mongolia] -75.8267 11.634 -6.518 0.000 -98.661 -52.992
C(countryname)[T.Montenegro] -45.3917 15.005 -3.025 0.003 -74.844 -15.940
C(countryname)[T.Morocco] -76.3457 10.864 -7.027 0.000 -97.670 -55.022
C(countryname)[T.Mozambique] -131.8247 11.103 -11.873 0.000 -153.618 -110.031
C(countryname)[T.Myanmar] -117.3511 11.486 -10.217 0.000 -139.896 -94.806
C(countryname)[T.Namibia] -106.9842 11.263 -9.499 0.000 -129.091 -84.877
C(countryname)[T.Nepal] -107.1417 11.139 -9.619 0.000 -129.005 -85.278
C(countryname)[T.Nicaragua] -67.9971 11.250 -6.044 0.000 -90.078 -45.916
C(countryname)[T.Niger] -131.2767 11.265 -11.654 0.000 -153.387 -109.166
C(countryname)[T.Nigeria] -108.4774 11.354 -9.554 0.000 -130.763 -86.191
C(countryname)[T.Oman] -45.9850 12.257 -3.752 0.000 -70.042 -21.928
C(countryname)[T.Pakistan] -71.2921 11.333 -6.291 0.000 -93.536 -49.048
C(countryname)[T.Panama] -54.8387 11.610 -4.723 0.000 -77.627 -32.050
C(countryname)[T.Papua New Guinea] -129.3900 12.264 -10.551 0.000 -153.461 -105.319
C(countryname)[T.Paraguay] -61.3095 10.991 -5.578 0.000 -82.882 -39.737
C(countryname)[T.Peru] -69.1489 11.242 -6.151 0.000 -91.214 -47.084
C(countryname)[T.Philippines] -67.1223 11.070 -6.064 0.000 -88.850 -45.395
C(countryname)[T.Qatar] -45.7417 13.005 -3.517 0.000 -71.268 -20.215
C(countryname)[T.Romania] -40.0389 12.232 -3.273 0.001 -64.049 -16.029
C(countryname)[T.Rwanda] -134.4587 11.145 -12.065 0.000 -156.334 -112.584
C(countryname)[T.Saudi Arabia] -46.2358 11.471 -4.031 0.000 -68.751 -23.721
C(countryname)[T.Senegal] -103.6448 10.858 -9.545 0.000 -124.957 -82.333
C(countryname)[T.Serbia] -48.3966 12.274 -3.943 0.000 -72.488 -24.306
C(countryname)[T.Sierra Leone] -137.4477 11.104 -12.378 0.000 -159.243 -115.652
C(countryname)[T.Singapore] -34.5885 11.252 -3.074 0.002 -56.675 -12.502
C(countryname)[T.Solomon Islands] -131.4461 12.264 -10.718 0.000 -155.519 -107.373
C(countryname)[T.Somalia] -126.3794 12.264 -10.305 0.000 -150.452 -102.307
C(countryname)[T.South Africa] -71.6881 10.877 -6.591 0.000 -93.037 -50.339
C(countryname)[T.South Sudan] -147.0966 15.011 -9.799 0.000 -176.561 -117.632
C(countryname)[T.Sri Lanka] -78.2000 10.910 -7.168 0.000 -99.614 -56.786
C(countryname)[T.Sudan] -118.5900 11.470 -10.340 0.000 -141.103 -96.077
C(countryname)[T.Suriname] -48.5419 11.333 -4.283 0.000 -70.786 -26.297
C(countryname)[T.Swaziland] -109.1839 11.476 -9.514 0.000 -131.709 -86.658
C(countryname)[T.Syrian Arab Republic] -39.2575 11.443 -3.431 0.001 -61.719 -16.796
C(countryname)[T.Tanzania] -124.6715 10.907 -11.430 0.000 -146.080 -103.262
C(countryname)[T.Thailand] -56.9004 11.167 -5.095 0.000 -78.819 -34.981
C(countryname)[T.Timor-Leste] -117.7333 12.279 -9.588 0.000 -141.835 -93.631
C(countryname)[T.Togo] -120.6872 11.034 -10.938 0.000 -142.345 -99.029
C(countryname)[T.Trinidad and Tobago] -35.7048 11.232 -3.179 0.002 -57.751 -13.658
C(countryname)[T.Tunisia] -54.6850 10.968 -4.986 0.000 -76.212 -33.158
C(countryname)[T.Uganda] -133.6455 11.203 -11.930 0.000 -155.634 -111.657
C(countryname)[T.United Arab Emirates] -51.9343 11.626 -4.467 0.000 -74.754 -29.115
C(countryname)[T.Uruguay] -38.8906 11.250 -3.457 0.001 -60.972 -16.809
C(countryname)[T.Venezuela, RB] -39.0836 11.320 -3.453 0.001 -61.303 -16.864
C(countryname)[T.Vietnam] -73.4905 10.964 -6.703 0.000 -95.011 -51.970
C(countryname)[T.Yemen, Rep.] -101.0340 11.621 -8.694 0.000 -123.844 -78.223
C(countryname)[T.Zambia] -121.3685 11.195 -10.841 0.000 -143.343 -99.394
C(countryname)[T.Zimbabwe] -101.7716 10.942 -9.301 0.000 -123.248 -80.295
year 1.2683 0.030 42.963 0.000 1.210 1.326

Model 2: Fixed effects regression

Model 2 specifies country level fixed effects with robust/clustered standard errors.

Show the code 
model_02 = smf.ols("elecrate_total ~ year + C(countryname)", data = data).fit()

Reuse

Citation

BibTeX citation:
@online{iyamabo2025,
  author = {Iyamabo, Jeremiah},
  title = {Model Comparison: {Aklin,} {Harish} \& {Urpelainen} (2018)},
  date = {2025-12-09},
  url = {https://jiyamabo.nl/posts/2025-12-09_aklin/},
  langid = {en}
}
For attribution, please cite this work as:
Iyamabo, Jeremiah. 2025. “Model Comparison: Aklin, Harish & Urpelainen (2018).” December 9, 2025. https://jiyamabo.nl/posts/2025-12-09_aklin/.